We are 37 months past the end of COVID. Based on 85 years of experience, the market should have returned to normal patterns. Something is still holding it back.
Shooters remain committed to their passion. Confidence in the future economy has not kept pace. Caution is now the dominant force in spending.
The industry is moving through a textbook macroeconomic correction. Demand surged. New entrants flooded in. Production spiked.
When the rush passed, shelves filled and orders slowed.
Customers have not vanished. They have adjusted.
Five-year spending trends remain strong, though most of it occurred during the pandemic surge. Today’s average ticket size is lower. Frequency is stretched. Spending continues, but on different terms.
Buyers are more selective. Tariffs and cost increases have sharpened this mindset. Shoppers hesitate when pricing feels unpredictable.
The industry’s response has followed a familiar script. Overstock triggered discount cycles. Promotions pulled demand forward. Products already bought were offered again at lower prices. Customers no longer trust that they are getting the best deal.
That approach is wearing thin.
Buyers are now evaluating more than price.
They measure risk.
They factor in replacement.
Performance matters.
Durability matters.
Reputation matters.
The strategy of chasing cheap has run out of road.
John Ruskin understood this better than most:
“It’s unwise to pay too much, but it’s worse to pay too little. When you pay too much, you lose a little money. When you pay too little, you sometimes lose everything, because the thing you bought was incapable of doing the thing it was bought to do.”
That quote holds up across the industry. What was once a bargain is now a risk. Cheap imports are no longer the easy choice. Freight and tariffs have closed the pricing gap. The quality gap remains.
Buyers are putting their money into what they already own. Gun safes are full. The focus has shifted to upgrades. Accessories. Triggers. Tools. These decisions are made with pride. Each one improves performance and reflects personal identity.
USA-made products speak directly to this shift. They offer reliability. They reflect craftsmanship. They last.
A good product now feels like an investment. Buyers are not asking how little they can spend. They are asking how long it will last.
The flight to value has become a flight to values.
Buyers are choosing based on belief. A product should perform. A company should stand behind it. A brand should mean something. Those who cut corners are getting exposed.
Those who support their customers are getting noticed.
Now is the time to stand for more than inventory. Now’s the time to return to the principles that built this industry. Trust. Accountability. Consistency.
Customers do not want a pitch. They want a guide. They want to be known. They want to feel like they belong.
A shop must offer more than stock. It must offer clarity. It must offer connection. It must offer a name remembered. That cannot be imported.That cannot be automated. That must be built.
Businesses that succeed now will be the ones that focus less on transaction and more on relationship. The product must hold up. The experience must matter.
And..the company must stand for something.
The flight to values is a foundation that builds lasting loyalty. It is the foundation that builds legacy.
— Pete Brownell
Brownell is Chairman of the Board of Brownells. He is also chairman and CEO of Brownells parent company, 2nd Adventure Group.
Publisher’s Note: This week’s edition of Q&A Outdoors will feature an extended conversation with Pete Brownell about the Flight to Values.
