Editor’s Note: Today, we introduce our newest contributor, Pete Brownell of Brownells, Inc. Pete will be offering his insights into a variety of topics of vital interest to consumers,  retailers and manufacturers. 

Why 2025 Looks Like 2015 and What Savvy Shops Are Doing About It

If you’ve been in this industry for a while, 2025 is starting to feel a lot like 2015. I call it the “Lost Decade.” Sales are back to where they were a decade ago, and customer behavior is too. No scarcity buying. No shortages. Just shallow, slow waters. Shops that want to stay healthy are already adjusting.

Summer sales are expected to hit 65 to 70 percent of February’s volume, matching the 15 to 20 percent decline from last year. NSSF forecasts and factory reports confirm it. This is what normal used to feel like.

Customers are holding onto their money. Politics are not moving the needle. Many 2020 buyers have either settled in or stopped buying. Tariff worries, even before prices rise, are making people hesitate. This isn’t new. We’ve seen this cycle before, and there are proven ways to stay ahead of it.

If you’re a retailer, now’s the time to give your store a once-over to make certain you’re doing everything possible to welcome customers and encourage them to shop and buy from you. OWDN image/Blackstone Shooting Sports, Charlotte, NC

The bottom line is simple: this summer will sting. It’s the hangover from three years of adrenaline.

Four Plays for the Summer

These are the strategies working for smart independents and range operators across the country.

1. Personalization is King

If your customer isn’t buying a $650 pistol, they’ll still spend $150 to give their favorite one a facelift. Promote refinishing services like Cerakote, hot bluing, or more budget-conscious options like Aluma-Hyde. These aren’t just cosmetic upgrades, they breathe life into old favorites. You’re tapping into a real customer need to make gear feel personal.

Sell functional upgrades. Install tritium sights, red dots, or a smoother trigger. Host a “How to Shoot with a Red Dot” workshop. Focus on quick target acquisition for defense or competition. Show how a new sight or trigger improves accuracy with just a little focused range time.

The same applies to rifles. Maybe your customer had to skip their hunt out West this year. But the dream didn’t die. Help them zero a new optic, tighten groups at 300 yards, or simulate cold bore shots to prep for the next season. They’re not just buying gear, they are buying confidence.

2. Offer Precision Service

This is the year to become the trusted gun mechanic in town. Be the local shop that keeps firearms running right. Offer a basic cleaning and diagnostic inspection. Think of it like a car checkup. Show what’s working, what needs attention, and where upgrades make sense. That $55 service often turns into bigger projects and lifelong customers.

3. Tighten Your Inventory Game

The most dangerous thing in your shop this summer is “just-in-case” inventory. Stock your core SKUs shallow and lean. Keep cash ready for the can’t-miss deals that drive traffic. If you’re slow, others are too. That means opportunity, if you’re ready.

For everything else, rely on a trusted distributor for just-in-time inventory. You either have what they want or can get it in 48 hours.

If your wholesaler hasn’t called in a while, it’s time to find one who will. Look for a partner who knows your name and answers before the second ring. You want someone who says, “This SKU is stale. Here’s what’s moving in shops like yours.” This is not the time to paddle slow waters alone. Find a distribution partner who’s in the boat with you.

4. Play Offense in the Off-Season

Many shops treat the slowdown like a time-out. That’s a mistake. This is the perfect season to make noise while others go quiet.

Plan a customer appreciation weekend. Host a manufacturer demo day or a free workshop. Run an e-promo tied to a holiday or a range event. You don’t need a huge investment, just energy and purpose. It’s also a great way to move stale inventory at the same time.

Clean up your storefront. Walk in the front door, not the back. What do you see? Dust? A deer season display in June? Swap in summer shooting gear. A clean, sharp shop tells your customer you care, and they feel that.

Extra Credit: Get Your Numbers Right

This is the year you need to know your numbers. Track profit per square foot, category turns, and weekly sales deltas. There’s no such thing as “good inventory” if it’s not moving. Anything that hasn’t turned in 90 days is now a liability.

Use your point-of-sale data to adjust displays, pricing, and promotions every week. Not just quarterly. And ask for help. A good distributor or supplier can show you what’s working elsewhere and help you clean up your mix.

While you're tightening your mix, tune your environment too. Clean. Polish. Re-merchandise. Store blindness is real. Slow times are the best chance you’ll have to see your space through your customer’s eyes and fix what’s off.

Back to the Hunt

Refocus. The pandemic taught us to sell everything to everyone. But now that we are back to normal, get back to your purpose. Whether you focus on hunting, competition, or defense own your niche and build a community around it.

You won’t sell your way out of a slump from the back room. The shops that win are the ones that move while others stay quiet.

— Pete Brownell

Pete Brownell is CEO of Brownells, Inc. For over 85 years, Brownells has been providing quality Gunsmithing tools, gun parts and service to the firearms industry.